Well its been a while this is my first post for more than 6 months. All the recommendations made in June have had a nice run up. Its time to go short. Trades have been initiated accordingly.

Volte Face

Not for the first time I have had a complete change of opinion the stock market and stocks are going up and probably rocket up. I have amended the trades accordingly

Well the FTSE100 has in fact traded as high as 5239 this morning but I remain convinced that the short still stands and have not closed this trade. Perhaps I'll be punished by the market for moving my stops but if you have faith you have faith and we remain short

The FTSE has actually crossed above 5210 but it hasnt necessarily behaved counter to its cycle so we shall remain short and lengthen the stop to 5230.

The FTSE100 is showing signs that it will sell off so we have opened a short trade at 5171 with a stop at 5210. This trade is also added to the list at the bottom of the blog. On a more general note retail sales came in with a poor figure but the market is doing its best to shake it off. I think it will fail to do so and that lower prices lie ahead as has been made amply clear by the nature of my blogs over the last few weeks. happy trading.

Fear not..Mr Bernanke has spoken.. Apparently everything is okay.. What a surprise
I'm sure the entire financial world was waiting with baited breath for Ben to tell us the system was on the edge of implosion.. But no everything is okay. Phew! ..With that we have a market rally.. Gold sells off..the fools...Being wiser than the average market participant we remain short the stock market and long Gold.

Please note that I have added trading lists for the GLD ETF and Apple for future reference.

As I type the NDX100 is trading at 1808 and taking a look at the cycles it occured to me that the next tradable low is going to be around the 1700 area. I expect that this descent will be fairly rapid and we'll trade here some time later this week. so we shall remain short until this point on the short term trade, the long term trade will remain short with a stop at 1930...P.S. it looks ugly.

I have had the opportunity this weekend to take a closer look at the Gold ETF symbol (GLD). GLD is currently trading at $119 and approaching its all time high of $122, I believe that this summer will see Gold truly soar as the next phase of the financial crisis comes home to roost.
It's laughable when watching Bloomberg or CNBC after a stock market sell off
that occurs at the same time as a fall in the price of Gold. The anchor will say Gold sold off because of a "flight to quality"..."the quality" apparently being US treasuries. Hah!. So an asset with intrinsic value, a store of wealth for generations is less quality than the debt of a government with its head asleep on the printing press ! Do we really think that a government can flood its economy with a trillion dollars of paper and suffer no ill effects ?
This is nonsense. Take my word for it this sovereign debt crisis is not nearly over with the spread of the contagion to Hungary. Ultimately this is coming home to roost in the US. When that happens, as it will expect complete financial market meltdown and for Gold to soar.
My cycles suggest that GLD is going to have an incredible summer I expect it to trade at $145 before it has any meaningful sell off. That’s an 18 per cent appreciation on its current price.
Gold , Silver and other precious metals are the only assets capable of surviving the coming financial storm. The time for that storm is now. Expect the crisis to escalate over the coming weeks.

A brief word on Warren Buffets testimony on Thursday. I thought it amounted to an admission of moral bankruptcy. He more or less removed himself for any responsibility for the financial crisis or indeed for Moody's lousy ratings. They needed to "tweak their models" he said. What utter nonsense, he must have known that they were receiving commissions for their work and that unless the ratings issued were "AAA" then no further work would be headed their way. It was their duty to issue AAA ratings on CDO's and whatever other products they found in front of them. He knew.. He knew that the whole system was crooked, he isn't the kindly grandfather figure he tries to make out... what he is is yet another wall street crook.

Yesterday was extremely unpleasant. All of the major indices were hit first by news that Hungary may default on it's sovereign debt and then by a bad jobs report. All the news is bad at the moment. The high on the NDXfutures yesterday at 1903 is a high that I believe will stand for some time. So we shall remain short both on the short term and long term time frames. One additional note: I have made a major break through in research during the middle of last week. I mentioned on initiating the blog that the site related to ongoing research which is probably now complete. This will result in more accurate trading so expect profits to escalate in coming weeks. I'm morally certain that lower prices lie ahead.

Currently trading at 1852. I don't think there is any further upside in this market so we remain short. I do believe that this market can go as low as 1400 in due course probably quite rapidly.

that didnt last abandon ship its carnage on the NYSE so much for BB.

at least we are long on the short term trade the long term is still short. what was it that Bernard Baruch once said. "The time to buy is when there's blood on the streets" what with the riots in Greece the situation couldnt be plainer

well we just been paid a visit by mr market meltdown down 3.5 per cent onthe day but good news it aint contiuning we are long at 1810

I shall make an effort to keep updated in future. Actually, trading has been going rather well but I won't post my actual record as that would feel more like cheating I shall only list as actual trades that are posted on this blog so we shall take these losses as though they were real ones. that means on the short term front we are more or less even but well down and with a lot of catching up to do on the long terms

I have been remiss. I have not updated for some time and this has led to some hideous losses on the large trade I shall update accordingly

trading now at 2027 this market is going up to 2088 which will be a major high the short term trade has been changed to reflect this.

Actually have rather tentatively gone short, maybe 2040 is as high as the NDX can go, Aapl has broken 250 but doesnt seem like it can go higher on this run stop is at 253

Apple is now at 250 msft and the NDX 100 are lagging we will close at 2036 and wait

Mistakes, mistakes, mistakes, further studies have revealed the error of my ways. Its so easy to misplace a cycle and there are so many of them, its a difficult job determining which is the dominant one, please bear in mind there is fine tuning to be done, anyway this is the lowdown of the assets that i trade
NDX100 is going up to 2025ish, there is some resistance at 2000 but i expect this to break, from 2025 we will retreat to about 1940 and then its off to the races again.
MSFT, again a misplaced cycle i am immediately bullish on this stock to 31.50
then a retreat to around 25.
GLD is going up.
AAPL is bullish to 250

Microsoft is going down there's no support on this baby till it hits 26

In fact change of heart i'm going to take the small profit on the long term trade and go short.

As I type the NDX is at 1944 it seems the uptrend is stalling out we have an immediate downside target of 1891 a breach of here would bring the validity of the long term uptrend into question. Since we opened the trade at 1903 the potential is for only a 12 point loss and so this is not of great concern if we breach 1891 then we will go long term short with a target back down at the 1700 area where we made the low in early February.

I am closing the short term trade at 1966 and going short long term trade is still up

the NDX has closed today at 1960 ish can only see further upside. Long term i think we're in a bull market until 2018.

After much tooing and froing in recent trades (which has admittedly made the trading table a mess, but which has fortunately actually made us money) I have finally come to the conclusion that the NDX is indeed going up, that is short term as well as long term, we are therefore long again at 1935

Okay we are short at 1940 following the failure at 1950

Actually feel ive made a mistake on the short term cycle here and that it will actually go higher so closed at 1939 and gone long

I am of the opinion that the market currently trading at 1930 must move lower between now and the vernal equinox. It must go to 1872 on this date a number which faces the vernal equinox on the square of nine. We will nonetheless keep the long trade going as I am nigh on certain that the bull markets stands and higher prices lie ahead in the future, so short term down longer term up.

Nasdaq 100 is currently trading at 1921. I think the 1930 on Friday will actually be the high for this move I expect a retracement to 1870 ish now probably to around the 21st March. So for the small term moves we are now short, we remain long for the longer term move

Have had a complete change of mind and instead beleive this market will rise to the 1940 area before any sell off, trades have been adjusted to reflect this.

My apologies for going quiet I haven't posted since the 1st March. We close today the short term trade at 1903 and will go short from here. target is 1866 we shall also close the long term trade here at a loss. of 13 points and go long.

I have gone long at 1835 with a target at 1872 feels good to have aborted that last trade.

The most recent short term trade has been closed at 1835. That's what you get for not sticking to the rules.

Well we appear to have gotten lucky the NDX100 is trading at 1806 after a brief foray in the morning with 1820 we have not closed the trade so were still in the game, target is 1752

Strictly the stop at 1815 has been breached nonetheless we shall stay short on the basis that we do not wish to be caught out again as last time. Mentally we shall hold the stop somewhere around 1820

I would add there is a strange propensity for the market of late to do this a sudden onslaught of buying.

Markets were well down on the day but the NDX has vaulted up to 1805 in the 20 point half an hour rally. This is a good place to short again. So we'll go short here with a stop at 1815 so only a small loss should we prove to be wrong.

Rather unlucky with yesterday's trade the market took out our stops and then sold off. For all the axioms that Wall Street has ever come up with there is only one never stated and which has any value and it's this. "BE RIGHT". You see we used excellent money management but nonetheless if we had not used stops we'd still be in with the trade. I still feel bearish through to my bones if we head back up to 1815ish we will short again. Otherwise we'll just sail with our long term trade which is still nicely in profit with the futures at 1805 this morning.

With the futures currently trading at 1800 I have decided to open another short trade at this level with a stop at 1815. The recent trading records are now listed at the bottom of this blog. I intend in due course to list also trades which I would refer to as squarings of price and time. These are the high probability trades.

The Markets are down a percent or more today just about across the board. Expect the next few days to see considerable selling pressure.

Currently the NDX100 is trading at 1817 this is above our stop at 1805 and so the short trade is closed giving us a running score of Wins 80 Losses 30. The longer term trade remains short from 1890. Looking at the cycles it seems the NDX is still in it's bear phase until at least the end of February. Looking at individual stocks Microsoft has been adhering to its Bayer cycle with virtual perfection. It is about to enter the final down phase of this cycle so we should expect the market to be dragged down with it.

Nasdaq 100 future is currently trading at 1783 expect a quite day today as both the Americans and Chinese are on holiday, we remain short.

Incidentally, with regard to open trades you will recall we still have short open from 1790 with the stop at 1805, the current running score is Profit 80 Losses 16. There is also the long term short trade that is open from 1890 that you will recall from the earlier posts.

Have had a good long look at the Nasdaq 100 over the last few days, we are currently trading at 1730 and it seems to me there is no support now until we hit 1661 which could well happen today or on Monday. Also looked at Gold which is certainly in the bear phase of it's cycle. I expect it will go down as far as $800 an ounce on this run. If you look at a chart of Gold you will note that this is at the area of a major trendline drawn up from 2006.

Currently trading at 1753. 1756 is the high of the day so far and I would suggest to a day trader that this is not an area that will be penetrated today, so its worth a short. I expect a sell off down to 1730ish.

Incidentally if you shorted at 1790 you may wish to place your stop back to this level. Then you have a trade to nothing don't you?

As I type the NDX100 is straight back down at 1758 this is actually strong support and given the velocity of the move into it we might expect it to hold for the day at least. If you shorted at 1790 you might consider yourself happy with the 30 points. If your in for the long haul then stay short.

I suppose that in fairness I should have anticipated this knowing it was a GDP release date this morning.

Well here is a thing the market is going to gap up to 1790 on "government massaged" GDP figures, for the sake of all those fools who honestly believe we are in an economic recovery. I'll happily take their money as I'm morally certain that this market is in freefall. Let's try a short trade at 1790 with the stop at 1805

well that was another bad day on the NDX100 particularly down at 1760 at one stage managed to get back to 1780 though before settling at 1770. The longer term trade is now very nicely in profit. I fancy there is more immediate downside here probably to the 1650 area. Shall we say be 5th February 2010. Dont have a good entry point at the moment for this one though so for the moment we'll leave it.

score on the doors is now Profit 80 Losses 16. Strategy for the moment is to wait for the next opportunity

Not so 1810 is broken trade closed.

Well Apple has come out with it's earnings report and to no surprise at all the results are fantastic. The NDX futures immediately bolted up to 1811 (our noted area of resistance) and then immediately fell back down like a brick elephant (as low as 1783). This has been the trend over this earnings season. You will recall a similar type of move in Goldman Sachs. It seems that we are on the correct side of the market and that resistance at 1810 will hold. It must have been hit 4 times over the last 36 hours of trading and each time it has held and the market has sold off. I am confident this short will be a successful trade. Nonetheless stops are at 1820 we are looking for 1758.

Well we are now at 1802 the initial support I identified on Friday at 1810 has turned into resistance. We are short looking for 1758. We can have a low risk stop on the trade at 1820 we went short at 1805 so thats a possible 47 points profit for a 15 point loss or approximately 3 to 1 win/loss ratio. we can afford to win just one of 4 trades and we would break-even.

Okay done a little more research over the weekend I feel this market is going down to 1758 then we will rally, probably up to about 1833. We are in a bear market environment.

This is actually turning out to be a pretty horrific day on the markets

okay well there you go didnt hold thats a loser of 6 points. But we have won one and lost one the score on the doors is Profit 80 Loss 6. And that folks is how you trade. Short again now.

I would add that I remain stongly bearish, just looking for a quick few points here. 2010 may well turn out I feel to be a truly catastrophic year for the stock market. As for my confidence in getting these few points, it is not high a nice close stop at 1805. As always should be reiterated those losing trades must be closed! This is long term survival.

Well there you have it we have officially traded at 1810 which means the first of the trades can be closed at a profit of 80 points. This is actually an area of fairly strong support and though this is not the type of trade I am looking to make it may well be worth a long trade to look for a quick 20 or 30 points or so. Especially seemings the SPX is at 1100.

Goldman Sachs incidentally has a capitalisation of $119 Billion. And derivatives to the value of $34 Trillion !! Yes that's trillion. Oh Boy this could be a huge event on the horizon

Now this is turning into a rather interesting days trading, the reason for the sudden sell off is Obama's policy with regard to the banks who are all down heavily on the day. They are going to be banned from Proprietary trading, they are going to be smaller, all of which contributes to why Goldman Sachs is down 6% on the day. All of this I can understand, But an additional little side story on GS just on Bloomberg. GS's Credit Default Swaps are also up massively on the day. Now why should this be? There may be trouble ahead folks.

and Timber !! The Dow is taking a real pounding. down nearly 2%

Incidentally the NDX is currently making a desperate effort to hold 1850 after a sudden morning sell off that saw it plunge from 1880, anyone know if there is a news story behind this sudden plunge? I can't see that it will hold 1850.

I read an article today that suggests that the market cannot head down because 25% or more of new issues were hitting new highs and that bodes well for the market historically. My reply to this would be whether a stock hits new highs or not makes not a jot of difference to its future direction. In my opinion the one technical aspect to look out for in this rally is the degree to which the masses have become bullish and right now this is high. At this point the insiders who have engineered this rally will know they have a nice market to unload on. That time by the way is now.

As I type the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 1863 having sold off to support at 1850 yesterday then rallied as high as 1874 on the futures so the trade is looking good and still stands.

Clearly the market did not take to IBM's earnings report despite it being in line with expectations. NDX100 is now trading at 1873 which would appear to vindicate initial opinion, nonetheless stops will be maintained above 1900 and activated should the market rally to here.

We have rallied now to as high as 1896 the trade remains open, the futures are currently at 1882 so it seems we may gap down at the open. I will make an effort to make at least one post each day.

Okay so we've gapped up to 1874 at the open. I'm confident that we'll sell off, as mentioned the general trend is now downwards.

I also intend to use this blog to experiment on various trading systems, the most important thing for any trading system is that it be disciplined. It is a lack of discipline that causes traders to lose money as they refuse steadfastly to close losing trades. I myself took an age to learn this lesson.

I do believe that just about any trading method will work so long as you close those losing trades.

Please note that 10 years of work have gone into this trading system. I cannot begin to tell you how much work is actually entailed in it. The methodology is based on the work of William Gann and George Bayer.

Welcome to my blog, this is a stockmarket related blog on the Nasdaq 100. I exclusively trade the Nasdaq 100 futures. This will start off rather bare but over time I intend to include trading records for your perusal.

As I type the Nasdaq 100 future for March 2010 is trading at 1868 I am short as at 1893 this market must go lower. There is no further upside. I like to trade with 2 targets the first is at 1810 the 2nd way down at 1444. I think that 1444 will be hit by mid February, so we'll see what we get.

It's always advisable to use stops, I don't actually physically set stops but have them mentally set at 1910 which gives me in effect a 4 to 1 win loss ratio, for the quick trade and something in the region of 22 to 1 on the longer term trade.